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Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. While hurricanes can, and have, occurred in every month of the year, it’s during these six months that formation is most common.
That’s because two specific conditions come together between June and November which makes the ocean ripe for storm development:
- Warm water (80°+) and
- Lower wind shear which prohibits storms from forming at other times of the year.
You’ll see the forecast for the upcoming 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin below, which shows we are expecting above-average tropical activity. But before you panic, let’s chat about the details. First, the reason.
WHY SO ACTIVE?
Various factors play into this active forecast but the two biggest are:
- Very warm ocean water temps
- La Niña is making a comeback
Notice the graphic below compares an average season – 14 named storms with seven of those reaching hurricane status and three of those seven making it to a Major/Category 3 (winds 111-129 mph) storm – to the forecast for this year.
Colorado State University issues an annual forecast, and as of early April, their outlook is for 23 named storms with eleven of those becoming hurricanes and five of the eleven reaching Major hurricane status.
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WARM WATER
Atlantic Ocean water temperatures in May are breaking records that were just set last year. These unprecedented warm temperatures provide enormous amounts of fuel for hurricanes to form and grow.
If you’ve lived in Florida very long, you’ve heard of Dr. Phil Klotzbach. He’s an integral part of the tropical forecasting team at Colorado State University which issues the annual hurricane forecast (see above). One of the main reasons his forecast is for so many storms is because of the current Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Warm water allows hurricanes to intensify and can also add to more storms developing earlier in the season. What’s interesting to note is that last year, with El Niño firmly in place, we still had 20 named storms (well above the average) across the Atlantic Basin. It was the warm water that allowed so many storms to form despite El Niño’s usual subduing effects.
Usually, in an El Niño year, we have fewer hurricanes that develop, but 2023 ended up ranking 4th for most named storms in a year. It’s a good reminder that extremely warm water can be just as impactful as El Niño and La Niña on seasonal activity.
LA NIÑA REDEVELOPING
Now that El Niño is ending and La Niña is expected to emerge just as hurricane season gets underway, a “La Niña Watch” has been issued by the Climate Prediction Center.
Before we discuss how La Niña will impact our Florida hurricane season, let’s define what La Niña is.
WHAT IS LA NIÑA?
La Niña and El Niño are Spanish words meaning “the little girl” and “the little boy” and are also names of centuries-old weather phenomena that impact weather and climate around the globe. They are extreme phases of a naturally occurring cycle of the Earth’s climate which is why we talk about them over and over again every few months or years.
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The water in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, fluctuates between warmer than average temperatures (El Niño), cooler than average temperatures (La Niña), and a neutral phase when temperatures are within one degree of “normal.”
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A La Niña event forces the Pacific Ocean’s jet stream, a narrow band of wind flowing west to east several miles above the Earth’s surface, to dip west of its normal position toward the Central Pacific. When a jet stream moves to a different location, it shifts storms and moisture into different locations.
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Various parts of the world are impacted in different ways during the La Niña phase. And those impacts vary depending on which time of year La Niña occurs. NOAA says there have been 25 La Niñas of varying strengths since 1950. That’s an average of one event every three or so years.
HOW DOES LA NIÑA IMPACT THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON?
Each La Niña is unique but when a strong event occurs during hurricane season, some patterns emerge across the Atlantic Basin. (The Pacific hurricane season is generally quieter during La Niña with fewer hurricanes and stronger wind shear which suppresses storm growth).
Since Earth’s water and atmosphere are interconnected (think of the water cycle you studied in 5th grade), cooler water in the Pacific creates less wind shear in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean. With less wind shear, hurricanes that form during a La Niña hurricane season can form and grow more easily.
During the last La Niña event (2020-2021) the Atlantic Basin had a record 30 named storms with fourteen of those becoming hurricanes in 2020. And in the 2021 season, 21 tropical storms formed with seven of those reaching hurricane status. Remember a “normal/average” season is only 14 named storms.
Of course, it’s not just about the above-average amount of storms. It’s about WHERE these storms form and track. Based on past climatology, La Niña seasons have much more hurricane activity in the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, and also across the southeast U.S., both on the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Coast. That’s not the best news for Florida.
FLORIDA GETS THE MOST HURRICANES
Of the nearly 500 hurricanes that have made landfall in the US since we started keeping records, 120 of them have hit Florida. That means we’ve had 40% of the landfalling hurricanes despite our nickname of “The Sunshine State.”
Of the 120 hurricanes that have hit Florida, about one-fifth of them have been a Major/Category 3 or stronger. Because of these statistics, we must be ready for when, not if, hurricanes come our way.
HOW SHOULD FLORIDIANS PREPARE?
Sometimes Floridians get a case of “only-a” or “just-a.” Have you ever said, “I don’t need to prepare. It’s ‘only a’ tropical storm.” Or maybe you’ve lived through a few hurricanes and said, “This is no big deal. It’s ‘just a’ category one.”
It’s important to remember that no two storms are the same. Just because a hurricane makes landfall in the same general location with the same general wind speeds, each storm is unique and moves in its own way. One may do damage at your house. Another may not.
My best piece of advice has never waivered in 22 years of forecasting in Central Florida:
DON’T BE SCARED. PREPARE.
If you prepare ahead of time, so much of the fear, worry, and panic can be removed from your world. Put together a hurricane kit that works for you and your family.
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This is my go-to list that I have shared several times in the past. Before a storm arrives, part of your preparation should be knowing the answer to these key questions:
- What county do you live in? (Watches and Warnings are issued by county name)
- Are you in a flood zone or an evacuation zone? (Which one? Zones are labeled A, B, C or maybe red, yellow, or green. Each county is different. Know your zone!)
- If you must evacuate, where is the closest shelter? What are their rules? Do they allow pets?
- How much water do you drink? How much non-perishable food will you need for three days? (Do you really need to empty the bottled water shelves at Wal-Mart?)
- What will happen if your house loses power for three days, five days, a week? How should you prepare in advance for no electricity?
- Do you need a generator? Do you have gas for the generator and your car?
- Do you have a prescription to fill?
- Do you have flood insurance? (This is a separate policy from homeowners insurance). Do you have hurricane insurance coverage? (This is also a separate rider from homeowners insurance).
- Do you have a way to communicate with your loved ones if the internet and cell phones don’t work?
Write down other things you would need to know and do if a storm hit. If you have a plan, you’re well ahead of others who don’t.
Florida is an amazing place to live. But if you reside here, you need to prepare for the heat, humidity, and thunderstorms of summer, along with the tropical storms and hurricanes from June to November.
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