If you’ve seen the forecast for the upcoming 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, you know we expect above-average tropical activity. Before you panic about the cruise you have booked between June and November, read on.
Yes, there are more hurricanes forecast for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, but that doesn’t mean you need to change your cruise plans.
WHY SO ACTIVE?
Various factors play into this active forecast but the two biggest are:
- Extremely warm water temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean
- The expectation of La Niña’s return
In an average season, 14 named storms form with seven of those reaching hurricane status and three of those seven making it to a Major/Category 3 (winds 111-129 mph) storm.
However, early indications for this year show that we will blow those numbers away, so to speak. Colorado State University issues an annual forecast, and as of early April, their outlook is for 23 named storms with eleven of those becoming hurricanes and five of the eleven reaching Major hurricane status.
At the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also issued an active forecast expecting 17-25 named storms, with eight to thirteen of those reaching hurricane status, and four to seven of those becoming Major (Category 3) hurricanes.
WARM WATER
Tropical scientist, Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami, posted on X that 2024 Atlantic Ocean temperatures are breaking records that were just set last year. These unprecedented warm temperatures provide enormous amounts of fuel for hurricanes to form and grow.
In mid-May, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, an integral member of the tropical forecasting team at Colorado State University, also weighed in on the warm water brewing in the Atlantic Basin: “The current Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern matches up almost perfectly with the May sea surface temperature pattern historically associated with busy Atlantic hurricane seasons.”
Not only does warm water allow hurricanes to intensify, but it can also add to more development earlier in the season. Last year with El Niño firmly in place, we still had 20 named storms (well above the average) across the Atlantic Basin. Warm water got the thanks (or blame?) for allowing so many storms to form despite El Niño’s usual subduing effects.
LA NIÑA REDEVELOPING
The Climate Prediction Center issued a “La Niña Watch” because El Niño is ending and La Niña is expected to emerge just as hurricane season gets underway.
Before we discuss how La Niña might impact a cruise booked during hurricane season, let’s define what La Niña is.
WHAT IS LA NIÑA?
La Niña and El Niño are Spanish words meaning “the little girl” and “the little boy.” They are also the names of centuries-old weather phenomena that impact weather and climate around the world. We talk about them every few months or years because they are part of the naturally occurring cycles of our climate.
The water in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, fluctuates between warmer than average temperatures (El Niño), cooler than average temperatures (La Niña), and a neutral phase when temperatures are within one degree of “normal.”
According to the definition used by NOAA, water temperatures at the surface near South America’s west coast must remain at or below .9℉ (.5℃) from normal for at least three months. Once this occurs, La Niña is “in effect.”
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When La Niña occurs, the Pacific Ocean’s jet stream, a band of wind flowing west to east above the Earth’s surface, dips from its normal position toward the Central Pacific. When a jet stream moves to a different location, it shifts storms and moisture into different locations.
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La Niña impacts various parts of the world in different ways. Those impacts vary depending on which time of year it occurs. This means the location of your cruise – home port, embarkation and disembarkation points, ports of call, and planned route – all play into how your cruise might be affected.
According to NOAA, there have been 25 La Niñas of varying strengths since 1950. That’s an average of one event every three years or so.
HOW DOES LA NIÑA IMPACT THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON?
Each La Niña is unique. However, when a strong event occurs during hurricane season, noticeable patterns emerge across the Atlantic Basin.
As a side note, the Pacific hurricane season is generally the opposite of the Atlantic. They experience a quieter pattern during La Niña with fewer hurricanes and stronger wind shear suppressing storm growth. So this might be the time to consider a cruise from San Francisco or Seattle rather than Miami or Galveston.
Since Earth’s water and atmosphere are interconnected (think of the water cycle you studied in 5th grade), cooler water in the Pacific creates less wind shear in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean. With less wind shear, hurricanes in a La Niña season can form and grow more easily.
During the last La Niña event (2020-2021) the Atlantic Basin had a record 30 named storms. Fourteen of those became hurricanes in 2020. And in the 2021 season, 21 tropical storms formed. Seven of those reached hurricane status. Remember a “normal/average” season is only 14 named storms.
Of course, it’s not just about the above-average amount of storms. It’s about WHERE these storms form and track. Based on climatology, La Niña seasons have more hurricane activity in the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. There’s also more activity across the southeast U.S., both on the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Coast.
WHAT IF I HAVE A CRUISE BOOKED OR PLAN TO BOOK ONE?
None of this information should stop you from booking a cruise between June and November. But there are a few things you should do in advance.
1. Don’t panic
If a hurricane is forming or forecast to be near your cruise route, your Captain and the forecast team (located at the Fleet Operations Center in Miami if you booked with Carnival) will be monitoring it 24/7. They will steer AWAY from storms, not toward them. Some would say it’s more safe to be on a ship than on land during a hurricane. Ships are mobile. Houses are not.
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Also, remember ships are built to withstand rough weather. You may not want to be on a cruise when the winds and waves are rolling, but the ship itself can handle winds near tropical storm force strength.
2. Stay flexible
Because the Captain and crew are taking every precaution to keep you safe, they will change your cruise itinerary if necessary. Know that if you were supposed to stop in Nassau, Bahamas, you may have to divert to Bimini instead.
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The cruise team will communicate with you to let you know which ports might need to be skipped or which shore excursions may need to change.
3. Consider travel insurance
It’s a good idea to pay the extra few dollars for travel insurance, especially during hurricane season. Cruise lines consider canceling cruises as a VERY LAST RESORT but on occasion, it may happen. Read the fine print, of course, but most policies will protect your investment if your cruise plans change.
4. Explore other cruise destinations
You may have your heart set on a Caribbean cruise, but you could explore other options if you’re a nervous (or inflexible) traveler. An Alaskan cruise in June through September is a great option, or perhaps try a European cruise from August to November.
Here’s one other key thing to keep in mind as you make your cruise plans. Just because we have an above-average forecast, and even if we end up with record-breaking numbers of storms, the season lasts for six months. There won’t be a hurricane in the path of every single cruise in every destination during every week. There will be plenty of cruises that sail without coming anywhere near a tropical storm or hurricane.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Early forecasts show that La Niña will be in full swing by the peak of hurricane season and will likely last for several months. What happens next? Stay tuned for weather updates as you start thinking about cruise plans for this winter and next spring!
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Meteorologist Amy Sweezey serves as a Weather Contributor for Carnival Cruise Line.
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